The recent outbreak of civil conflict in Sudan will have a negative effect on the situation in neighbouring Libya, particularly in the southern areas of the country, according to the Economist Intelligence website.
The fighting between Sudan’s military and paramilitary leadership threatens to derail plans to repatriate Sudanese mercenaries from Libya. Persistent political uncertainty in Libya, coupled with Sudan’s deepening conflict, is also likely to delay Libya’s political transition, and exacerbate security risks.
Libya relies on Sudan for joint coordination and data exchange, both to facilitate the return of Sudanese mercenaries from Libyan territory, and in relation to commercial trade (although bilateral trade is limited).
In mid‑February, local Sudanese news outlets reported positive steps in preparations to register mercenaries. This is to ultimately return them from Libya, but there is a lack of concrete information to confirm whether much progress has been achieved.
On 30 March, the Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Abdoulaye Bathily visited Sudan to hold talks with the Head of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah Al‑Burhan. They discussed international efforts to withdraw foreign forces from Libyan territory.
The UN estimated that 11,000 Sudanese mercenaries were present in Libya in 2021.
According to UN estimates, a peaceful transition and reconstruction in Libya could potentially enhance economic performance in Sudan by US$22.7bn between 2021‑25.
Conversely, continued upheaval and an escalation of violence in Sudan will dampen both political and economic prospects for Libya. As well as increase investor concerns around security and clear political and economic management and accountability in Libya. The fighting in Sudan is likely to increase the flow of refugees into Libya, further straining Libya’s political process, given rising insecurity and uncertainty.
The conflict in Sudan is expected to lead to increased border insecurity in southern Libya, with cross-border movements of both fighters and displaced civilians.
This scenario would shift the eastern-based Libyan National Army’s (LNA) focus towards securing the border with Sudan. The political transition in Libya is expected to be delayed by these disturbances, with elections unlikely before 2024. This raises the risks of instability spreading in the near term, and potentially weakening economic growth prospects.
