The new Russian Ambassador to Libya is preparing to take up his post in the capital, extending Russian influence across an oil-producing nation, on the doorstep of Europe.
According to Bloomberg, Russia’s Wagner Group already has access to key oil facilities. It supported last year’s months-long blockade, that hit exports at the height of the energy crisis triggered by the invasion of Ukraine.
Moscow’s decision to reestablish its diplomatic presence in Tripoli — the seat of the United Nations-recognised government — is the clearest sign yet that Russian President, Vladimir Putin is looking to make inroads.
The developments have prompted concern in the US, which has dispatched a slew of senior officials to counter Putin’s advances in the OPEC member, who European governments are courting as a potential alternative to Russian energy. They include CIA Chief, William Burns, who visited Libya in January, speaking to rival governments in east and west and later meeting officials in neighbouring Egypt.
Top of the US agenda is a bid to oust an estimated 2,000 Wagner mercenaries.
“The status quo is inherently unstable,” US Special Envoy to Libya, Richard Norland told Bloomberg in a telephone interview. He warned of unspecified efforts to exploit internal divisions and thwart UN efforts to hold elections. “Our message is you’re only going to get legitimacy through elections,” Norland said.
The renewed international rivalry in Libya comes as Russia makes other gains in the Middle East, at the expense of the United States.
Though their numbers have dwindled since the invasion of Ukraine from highs above 4,000, Wagner forces are present at four military bases in Libya. This is according to the Libya-based Sadeq Institute think-tank, and the Navanti Group, which advises private clients and US government agencies.
In an interview with Bloomberg, the new NOC Chief, Farhat Bengdara praised eastern-based forces for their “great efforts in securing” the oil fields. He said Libya plans to open up new blocs to international companies in 2024, and raise output from 1.2 million to 2 million barrels a day within five years. Most oil analysts doubt that the NOC can pull that off without more political stability.
“Our impression is that the West is trying to achieve stability in Libya to ensure that more oil and gas supplies from that country reach European markets,” said Elena Suponina, a Middle East analyst based in Moscow. “The Kremlin understands that the US wants to use any means to weaken Russia’s influence in Libya, and one of our tasks is not to allow this to happen.”
Gleb Irisov, a former Russian air force officer who served in 2019-2020 in Syria’s Khmeimim air base, used by Moscow to supply Wagner forces in Libya, said he personally saw up to 20 Soviet-built MiG-29 fighter jets, as well as attack helicopters delivered to Libya.
“These have been proclaimed as US objectives: No. 1 expel Wagner and No. 2 make sure the elections happen in 2023,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert at the London-based Royal United Services Institute. “Neither thing is going to materialize, mainly because the US is not really going to try.”
