An American research institute has cautioned about changes and circumstances that could reignite terrorist threats in Libya. These have significantly dwindled compared to previous years, and has been over a year since the last reported attack by IS in the country.
Contrary to the escalating terrorist activity in sub-Saharan Africa, relative tranquillity has prevailed in Libya and Tunisia, according to a report from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. It pointed to the notable activities of terrorist groups in both countries since 2011.
The institute stated that there are “conducive conditions for the resurgence of terrorist activity.” According to quantitative data analysis, “individuals remain interested in planning domestic attacks, and attempting to join foreign terrorist organisations, even if these efforts do not constitute the kind of coordinated campaign seen in previous years.”
The ongoing issue of detainees associated with IS also looms large. Currently, “hundreds of men, women, and children from North Africa who formerly belonged to IS, either voluntarily or by coercion, are being held either in prisons or internally displaced persons camps in Northeast Syria. With no suitable mechanisms for their repatriation and their subsequent rehabilitation and reintegration into society, they could pose new security dilemmas and threats to North African countries.”
The report also noted that the United States and its allies have focused on targeting IS in Libya, significantly reducing the threat. By December 2016, the presence of its members was confined to the Sebha region, and was no longer significant in everyday life.
The report warned that the organisation has “resorted to covert operations and remained relatively dormant in 2017, partly due to the American airstrikes targeting its camps outside Sirte. While ISIS claimed responsibility for only four attacks that year, the pace of operations picked up in February 2018, when the group seemingly decided to emerge from the shadows. However, the momentum of attacks subsided in December of the same year, after the General Command forces discovered the group’s base near the Ghadduwah oasis.”
The organisation then shifted to the Harouge Volcanic Field and resumed operations in April 2019, executing 11 attacks. However, this wave ended after the General Command forces found the organisation’s new operational base in June of the same year. This discovery limited the group’s activity significantly, focusing on promoting desert life through propaganda, and obtaining numerous pledges of allegiance.
The Washington Institute’s report clarified that actual military operations between 2020 and 2022 were negligible, and relatively inconsequential. They did not form part of a broader campaign but were sporadic attempts to prove the organisation’s existence. Now, more than a year has passed since the last IS attack.