Former US Envoy to Libya, Jonathan Winer anticipates increased diplomatic activity in the coming weeks to persuade the parliamentary bodies to amend the 6+6 Joint Committee election agreement. However, he says, “No one should expect Parliamentary or Presidential elections anytime soon.”
The understanding of the Committee in Bouznika, Morocco, formed between the Parliament and the High Council of State (HCS), drew criticism from several parties, including the UN Envoy to Libya Abdoulaye Bathily. He listed four “disputed issues” that could potentially trigger serious political risks if the elections were held, as specified by mm Winer in an article for the Middle East Institute in Washington last Tuesday.
In Winer’s view, the agreement is rapidly falling apart.
Bathily’s observations to the UN Security Council centered on disputes over who would be eligible to run for the presidency. The mandatory second round of the Presidential elections, regardless of whether anyone receives a majority of votes in the first round. As well as the issue of postponing Parliamentary elections, until after the first round of the Presidential elections, and cancelling them in case the first round “fails”. There is also a demand for the formation of a new interim government before holding elections.
Behind these four points put forth by Patel, there are political risks, who posed the perennial question of whether people like Khalifa Haftar and Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi could run for President. Both men have significant political bases, but they are unwanted by many Libyan circles. If they are prevented from running, they are likely to collaborate through their local and foreign networks to thwart the elections.
Regarding the issue of the mandatory second round of Presidential elections, Winer reads this as “an attempt to circumvent the will of the people by the losers, giving them a chance to look for an alternative winner, or to prevent a second round entirely, rendering the entire date pointless.”
The clause of postponing the Parliamentary elections encourages current office holders, to prevent the Presidential elections and thus remain in their positions.
The call for the formation of a new government, was linked with a desire of some players in Libya to replace Prime Minister Abdel-Hamid Dbaiba, targeting his isolation regardless of who is eventually chosen as President.
In the coming weeks, Libya is expected to witness intensive diplomacy by Bathily to persuade Libya’s legislative bodies to amend the 6+6 agreement. This threatens to cause a rift between the bodies and Bathily. However, Winer concludes by saying, “No one should bet on the Libyan Parliamentary or Presidential elections to be held anytime soon.”