A report by the American Middle East Institute (AMEI) said that the Libyan election agreement reached by the Joint Committee 6+6 for the preparation of election laws is rapidly collapsing.
The report suggested that the country is likely to witness “shuttle diplomacy” in order to pressure the two councils to amend the 6+6 laws during the coming period. The report stresses that holding elections at any time soon is impossible.
The Institute also pointed out that “the 6+6 agreement has raised criticisms from multiple parties, including the United Nations (UN) Envoy” Abdoulaye Bathily, who identified four contentious issues that could pose critical political risks if elections proceed as planned.”
Former US Envoy to Libya, Jonathan Winer, anticipates increased diplomatic activity in the coming weeks to persuade the parliamentary bodies to amend the 6+6 Joint Committee election agreement. However, he says, “no one should expect parliamentary or presidential elections anytime soon.”
The understanding of the Committee in Bouznika, Morocco, formed between the Parliament and the High Council of State (HCS), drew criticism from several parties, including the UN Envoy to Libya Abdoulaye Bathily. He listed four “disputed issues” that could potentially trigger serious political risks if the elections were held, as specified by Winer in an article for the Middle East Institute in Washington last Tuesday.
In Winer’s view, the agreement is rapidly falling apart.
Bathily’s observations to the UN Security Council centered on disputes over who would be eligible to run for the presidency. The mandatory second round of the presidential elections, regardless of whether anyone receives a majority of votes in the first round. As well as the issue of postponing parliamentary elections, until after the first round of the presidential elections, and cancelling them in case the first round “fails”. There is also a demand for the formation of a new interim government before holding elections.
Behind these four points put forth by Patel, there are political risks, who posed the perennial question of whether people like Khalifa Haftar and Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi could run for President. Both men have significant political bases, but they are unwanted by many Libyan circles. If they are prevented from running, they are likely to collaborate through their local and foreign networks to thwart the elections.