The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicted a significant decline in Libya’s total grain production for 2024, due to the collapse of the Derna dams.
The impact is expected to affect the availability of fruits and vegetables, especially following the weather disruptions in the east last September.
FAO highlighted the commencement of winter grain cultivation for 2024, scheduled for harvesting starting in April. Despite receiving below-average rainfall in late 2023 in key production areas along the coast, the rain distribution is considered suitable, providing adequate soil moisture for planting.
Farmers reported challenges, such as power outages and rising input prices for seeds, water, fuel, and machinery, affecting their ability to cultivate land.
FAO revealed that only about 12% of Libya’s total arable land of 15.4 million hectares, including 470,000 hectares suitable for irrigation, is currently irrigated due to concerns about groundwater depletion.
Rainfall in early September, resulting from the Mediterranean storm Daniel, caused losses and infrastructure damage along the northeastern coast, impacting income opportunities.
Satellite images suggest that some fields in the region were irrigated before the dam collapsed, indicating a significant decline in total grain production for 2024. The impact on the availability of fruits and vegetables is also anticipated.
FAO emphasised Libya’s heavy reliance on imports, covering up to 90% of grain consumption, primarily wheat for human consumption and barley for fodder. Changes in local grain production have a limited impact on import volumes.
In the marketing year 2023/24 (July/June), import requirements are expected to reach 3.1 million tons, a level similar to the previous year. Between 2016 and 2020, over 30% of wheat imports came from Ukraine, and 20% from the Russian Federation.
However, with the onset of the war in Ukraine, wheat sources shifted towards the Russian Federation due to price considerations. Wheat imports from the Russian Federation more than doubled between the years 2021/22 and 2022/23.
Despite rising global crude oil prices benefiting the energy-dependent economy, uncertainty about oil production disruptions, and security tensions following the postponement of national elections in December 2021 impact the country’s economic environment.