Libya, a nation yearning for stability, faces a crucial test as it approaches the 2024 elections amidst a political stalemate and uncertainty.
The failed attempt to conduct elections in December 2021 marked the beginning of an exhaustive period of negotiations among Libyan political factions, culminating in the drafting of electoral laws by the Libyan House of Representatives (HoR).
These laws, shaped through the 6+6 Joint Committee’s efforts, were intended to set the stage for presidential and parliamentary elections, offering a beacon of hope for a democratic transition.
However, the presence of two governments – the Government of National Unity (GNU) in the Western and the Eastern-based administration – posed a significant challenge to the unification process essential for overseeing the elections. This dual governance, symptomatic of Libya’s deep-rooted political divisions, has been a major roadblock on the path to the polls.
The United Nations (UN) Envoy to Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, recognising the gravity of the situation, proposed a quintuple meeting involving key political and military leaders. This initiative, aimed at resolving the impasse, received a mixed response, reflecting the entrenched political divisions in the country.
Asmahan Baloun, a Libyan HoR member, cast doubts over the feasibility of conducting elections before 2027. She attributed this skepticism to potential obstructionist tactics by the High Council of State (HCS), and the GNU, led by Abdelhamid Dbaiba.
Baloun’s remarks underscore the need for more decisive action toward forming a new government and averting the risks of returning to armed conflict.
In the context of international diplomacy, Libya’s plight seems to have taken a back seat, overshadowed by global crises like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Baloun pointed out the diminished global focus on Libya, except in matters related to oil and migration control. The international community’s engagement, once a significant factor in Libyan politics, appears to have waned, leaving the country at a crossroads.
Saad Bin Sharada, a member of the HCS, criticised the UN Envoy’s plan for exacerbating confusion in an already complex political landscape. He views the initiative as a prolonging strategy, reminiscent of the prolonged Skhirat dialogue process, and indicative of the UN’s failure to mediate the Libyan crisis effectively.
Amidst these challenges, Ahmed Hamza, Head of the National Human Rights Committee, warns of the catastrophic implications of not holding elections in 2024. He stresses the urgency of concerted national efforts to prevent a total collapse of the Libyan state, which could further deepen the ongoing crisis and threaten the nation’s unity and territorial integrity.