Libya, grappling with ongoing security and political turmoil, faces renewed fears of terrorist resurgence, especially after recent developments involving the Islamic State (IS). This concern is heightened in a country where Sirte and Derna, until recently, were major IS strongholds.
Security analysts highlight Libya’s oil and gas-rich southern region, as particularly vulnerable. The area’s porous borders with conflict-ridden African nations offer a conducive environment for extremist groups, seeking to reestablish their foothold.
The arrest of Hashim Abu Sedra, the leader of IS in Libya, linked to numerous terrorist acts, as he entered Tripoli from the south, has reignited concerns over IS’s revival. This event underscores existing security gaps, and the potential for terrorist expansion within Libya.
Moussa Tiho Sai, an expert in African affairs, argues that IS’ re-establishment in former strongholds like Sirte, is unlikely due to the strong military presence of Misrata forces in the west, and the Libyan National Army (LNA) in the east. These groups have significant counterterrorism experience.
Sai notes that terrorist leaders’ movements from southern to central Libya indicate attempts to access oil fields for funding. Abu Sidra’s travel from the south to the west is seen as a sign of security deficiencies, suggesting southern Libya remains outside effective government control.
The capture of Abu Sedra could trigger retaliatory actions from IS, intensifying concerns over Libya’s security situation. Sai warns that the fragile political and security landscape in Libya’s neighbours could facilitate terrorist infiltration for arms and fuel, with the south likely to become a staging ground for further advances toward oil fields.
Mohamed Torschin, a Sudanese academic, acknowledges the Sahel’s fragile security but considers a resurgence of terrorist activities in Libya unlikely. The presence of established authorities in Libya’s east and west weakens the potential for terrorist re-emergence.
Torschin believes that international reliance on Libyan oil and gas, and the presence of multinational companies will prevent a return of terrorist operations. However, he suggests that while Libya may serve as a base for terrorist leaders, it is less likely to become a frontline for terrorist activities, compared to its more unstable neighbours.