In 2024, the coasts of Italy witnessed a significant shift in irregular migration patterns, with a marked decrease in arrivals compared to the previous year. According to data from “Nova” agency, at least 53,877 irregular migrants reached Italy by September 30, 2024, reflecting a sharp 59.7% drop from the 133,821 migrants recorded during the same period in 2023.
One of the most notable changes this year is Libya surpassing Tunisia as the main source of irregular migration. Migrants from Libya accounted for 55.94% of the total, equaling 30,147 individuals, while Tunisian migrants represented only 29.57% (15,931 people). Despite this increase, Libya saw a 17.81% decline in the number of migrants departing from its shores compared to 2023, when 36,680 migrants left.
Tunisia, on the other hand, experienced a significant drop in migration, with numbers decreasing by 82.52%, from 91,145 in 2023 to just 15,931 in 2024. This decline is attributed to stricter border controls and regional and international security interventions.
Most migration from Libya in 2024 was concentrated in the Tripoli area in the northwest of the country. Only 939 migrants (3.11%) arrived in Italy from the Cyrenaica region, reflecting a shift from the first half of 2023 when Cyrenaica was a major departure point. This shift highlights changing migration strategies, with the western coast becoming more active.
The dominance of Tripoli in migration operations is a direct result of escalating political and security crises in the western region. Militias and armed groups continue to exploit irregular migration for financial gain. Meanwhile, the eastern region, under the control of the Libyan National Army, has successfully curbed migration through enhanced security efforts.
Despite a reduction in fatalities, the Mediterranean remains one of the deadliest migration routes in the world. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), 466 people have died, and 655 are missing in 2024, bringing the total death toll to 1,121. Although this figure is lower than the 2,498 recorded in 2023, migrants continue to face extreme risks as they attempt to reach Europe by sea.
In addition to fewer arrivals in Italy, interceptions of migrants at sea and their return to Libya continue regularly. By September 21, 2024, a total of 16,466 migrants, including 14,481 men, 1,134 women, and 540 children, were intercepted and returned to Libya. These numbers highlight the ongoing suffering faced by migrants held in harsh conditions in Libyan detention centers.
The nationalities of migrants arriving in Italy by the end of September 2024 are diverse, with most coming from Bangladesh (9,880), followed by Syria (8,591), Tunisia (6,584), and Egypt (3,036). Despite a reduction in the number of unaccompanied minors, their numbers remain significant at 5,542 children, down from 18,820 in 2023.
