Russia’s naval presence in the Mediterranean is under threat, and Libya has emerged as a potential alternative after Moscow’s grip on Syria began to weaken.
Following a fire aboard the Russian spy ship Keldin off the Syrian coast, reports have highlighted the declining state of Russia’s naval fleet and the increasing uncertainty over its long-term presence in Syria.
According to The Guardian, the fire—which took the crew nearly five hours to contain—has raised serious doubts about Russia’s naval readiness and operational capabilities. This incident follows another fire just two months earlier on the missile frigate Admiral Gorshkov, adding to growing concerns over Russia’s ability to maintain a stable military presence in the Mediterranean.
Russia’s Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase in Syria have been key pillars of its Mediterranean strategy, allowing Moscow to project power in the region for years. However, recent political changes in Syria have put Moscow’s long-term presence at risk.
Just last week, Syria’s interim government canceled a 2019 agreement with a Russian company, stripping Moscow of commercial control over the Tartus port. This setback jeopardizes Russia’s ability to maintain its military infrastructure in Syria, forcing Moscow to look elsewhere for strategic alternatives.
A January 2025 research paper by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) identified Libya as Russia’s most viable alternative to Syria. Moscow already has an estimated 2,000 military personnel in Libya, primarily concentrated in Benghazi and central Libya, where Wagner Group forces have supported Haftar for years.
While Libya offers a strategic opportunity, the move is not without risks. The RUSI report warns that Russia’s influence in Libya is heavily tied to Haftar, meaning Moscow’s Mediterranean strategy could be vulnerable to shifting alliances in Libya’s unstable political landscape. Unlike Syria, where Russia had a long-term partnership with Assad, Libya remains fragmented, making it a less predictable base of operations.
