A new British analysis by Middle East Monitor has warned of a potential escalation in armed clashes in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, as the government of Abdel-Hamid Dbaiba continues to hold power despite intensifying public protests and worsening living conditions.
The report states that Dbaiba’s government is under immense pressure following rare, unified demonstrations calling for his removal. The protests erupted amid mounting grievances over mismanagement, public sector failures, and growing corruption. This unrest has already prompted the resignation of three ministers.
Dbaiba’s televised address on May 18 was met with widespread rejection and reportedly exacerbated public anger. The report highlighted how the prime minister’s appointment of militia leader Abdel-Ghani al-Kikli — known as “Ghneiwa” — as head of the Stability Support Apparatus, and the allocation of $132 million to him in 2022 alone, has further fueled resentment.
Efforts by the Libyan House of Representatives to replace Dbaiba have reportedly stalled due to fears of losing international recognition. Meanwhile, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has proposed four potential political frameworks, all calling for the formation of a new government to oversee elections during a 24-month transitional period.
The report expects UN envoy Hanna Serwaa Tetteh to present these proposals to the UN Security Council on June 24. However, none of the plans are binding, leaving room for a flexible political roadmap based on the UN’s discretion.
The analysis described the Dbaiba administration as one of the most corrupt and dysfunctional since 2011. It attributed Libya’s prolonged instability to NATO’s intervention and subsequent failed international alliances that failed to secure peace.
Despite the current pause in protests, now limited to Friday night demonstrations, the report attributes the temporary lull to the Eid holiday and the availability of cash liquidity — suggesting the calm may be short-lived.
The article concluded that Dbaiba is unlikely to step down voluntarily, as he remains backed by powerful Misrata-based militias. This makes another round of violent conflict increasingly likely, with the government continuing to rely on propaganda, financial incentives, and armed groups to maintain its grip on power amid ongoing public fund mismanagement.
Quoting a Western diplomat, the report stated: “Frankly, nobody wants to appear as supporting a failed state — but no one is willing to fix it either.”
