The Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord (GNA), Fayez Al-Sarraj, reinstated Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha after a six-day suspension. Since Bashagha’s reinstatement, the UN-backed government’s internal clash pitting Al-Sarraj and his powerful vice-president Ahmed Maiteeq against Bashagha has been frozen for the time being.
Bashagha’s suspension was due to Al-Sarraj suspecting him to have opened the way for demonstrators to protest corruption and the deterioration of living conditions in Tripoli. Pro-Sarraj militiamen had to intervene violently to disperse the anti-government protests, something that deeply shocked the Interior Minister who was at the time on a visit to Turkey.
Since Sunday, August 30, protests over worsening living conditions and corruption have escalated in Tripoli. Armed forces have used gunfire to disperse demonstrators, and the GNA has imposed a 24-hour curfew for four days to curb the protests.
The dispute between Al-Sarraj and Bashagha appears to be about the role of militias in the country’s security apparatus. While recognising that militias have weakened and infiltrated state structures, the PM wants to reward them by virtue of the blood tribute they paid in the war against the Libyan National Army (LNA) of Khalifa Haftar.
Bashagha, despite being a patron of militiamen in the powerful Misrata, seeks to demobilise these formations as quickly as possible in Tripoli without granting them more power.
Analysts also see a reflection of international powerplays in the dispute that pits the Interior Minister who is close to Turkey and Al-Sarraj who is influenced by the United States and had ultimately acknowledged the extent of the LNA’s siege of Tripoli.
Given the numerical and qualitative weakness of militias supporting Bashagha, mainly Al-Radaa which is led by a Salafi Islamist called Abdul Rauf Kara, compared to numerous militias beholden to Tripoli and backing Al-Sarraj, including the powerful Al-Nawasi brigade, analysts and diplomats believe that an actual showdown between the two parties to the dispute is unlikely.
The truth is that in recent days, military supplies have continued to arrive to the east, especially in Sirte and Al-Jufra, in support of the Libyan National Army. In fact, many expect the truce announced in recent weeks to be soon rejected, and that Haftar’s forces will sooner or later return to attack those who defend Tripoli.
The only clear takeaway from Bashagha’s suspension is that the GNA’s PM has asserted that he is the one in charge in Tripoli and that he will not let his Interior Minister cross him.
Francesco Battistini in the Corriere della Sera noted that the Pentagon estimates that at least 5,000 Syrian mercenaries have been sent from Ankara to Tripoli to break the LNA siege. He concluded that such a foreign presence translates into an overwhelming Turkish political weight trumping the role of every other actor in Libya, including Italy.
During the LNA siege, Bashagha has been the strongman supported by Turkey. He took advantage of this support by portraying himself as some kind of shadow prime minister of the GNA and backed his claims to power with some military achievements against Haftar. Ultimately, he activated the truce signed with Al-Barqa to break the National Solidarity Front and fight corruption in the Al-Sarraj government, even if he has a hand in such corruption.
To keep his position intact in August, Al-Sarraj sent militias to shoot at demonstrators who were protesting the high cost of living and failed Covid-19 policies under his premiership. In turn, Bashagha deployed his own men to defend the protesters.
Behind this political clash, Battistini underlines that “There is great enmity between the militias in Tripoli. Sarraj would like to include them in the army while Misrata militias loyal to Bashagha are reluctant to only wear the national uniform and share weapons with militiamen allied to Al-Sarraj. Additionally, behind this political clash lies the competition between Erdogan and Al-Sarraj’s Euro-American supporters.”
Speaking on the situation in Libya, the director of the radio France Inter, Pierre Haski, said that: “Today Libya remains a symbol of world disorder. The rules of the game no longer exist there.” He also added that according to French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, “we are now living in an increasingly cruel world, especially as the world order is under the influence of power manoeuvres and the systematic dismantling of multilateralism.” For the French top diplomat, it is clear that “we have returned to the law of the strongest, and it will be very difficult to put order in this growing chaos.”
He then concluded by saying that “when the law of the strongest reigns and diplomacy surrenders, then, sultans, autocrats, president-generals and dictators of various latitudes who have made litter of the diplomacy of rights, will have won.”