Fears of a renewed presence of ISIS in Libya have resurfaced following a recent warning by United States Africa Command, which stated that the group may be quietly rebuilding its activity in parts of the country. The warning has sparked concern among Libyans and reopened debate about the risk of extremist groups exploiting ongoing instability.
While there are no confirmed signs of large-scale operations, AFRICOM indicated that ISIS is benefiting from human smuggling networks and irregular migration routes. Libya’s fragmented security environment, combined with weak border control in the south, continues to provide space for armed groups to move and operate.
The warning comes nearly ten years after ISIS was expelled from its stronghold in Sirte in 2016 following a major military campaign supported by US airstrikes. Former fighters involved in that operation say the threat has never fully disappeared, noting that the group can operate in small, decentralized cells that are difficult to track.
Security analysts point to several factors that could support a return. Continued political division between eastern and western Libya, along with periodic security tensions, creates gaps that extremist groups could exploit. At the same time, increasing pressure on armed groups in the Sahel region — including Chad, Niger, and Mali — may push militants to relocate toward Libya, where logistical networks remain active.
Recent incidents have also raised questions, including attacks on infrastructure such as oil facilities, which resemble tactics previously used by extremist groups. However, no direct link has been confirmed.
Some analysts remain cautious, arguing that concerns about ISIS activity in Libya are not supported by clear evidence of a major escalation. Experts from the International Crisis Group note that warnings about southern Libya have circulated for years without significant changes on the ground.
The timing of the US warning has drawn attention, as it comes ahead of planned military exercises involving forces from eastern and western Libya. This has led to differing interpretations, ranging from precautionary security assessments to broader efforts aimed at strengthening coordination.