Mahmoud Shammam, a former member of the outgoing Transitional National Council, has predicted the outbreak of a civil war in Libya. He attributes this potential conflict to what he describes as the failure of the vertical power-sharing project in the country.
In a statement released on his Facebook account today, Shammam questioned, “Have the conditions for a civil war been met, and is it inevitable following the failure of the vertical power-sharing project?”
Shammam’s warning highlights the deep political divides and the stalled progress towards unity in Libya, raising concerns about the country’s future stability.
Libya has been in chaos since a NATO-backed uprising toppled longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The county has for years been split between rival administrations.
Libya’s economy, heavily reliant on oil, has suffered due to the ongoing conflict. The instability has led to fluctuations in oil production and prices, impacting the global oil market and Libya’s economy.
The conflict has led to a significant humanitarian crisis in Libya, with thousands of people killed, and many more displaced. Migrants and refugees using Libya as a transit point to Europe have also faced dire conditions.
The planned elections for December 2021 were delayed due to disagreements over election laws and the eligibility of certain candidates. This delay has raised concerns about the feasibility of a peaceful political transition.
Despite the ceasefire, security remains a significant concern with sporadic fighting and the presence of mercenaries and foreign fighters. The unification of the military and the removal of foreign forces are crucial challenges.
