The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its November 2024 bulletin that global oil supply surged by 290,000 barrels per day (bpd), reaching 102.9 million bpd in October. This growth is attributed primarily to Libya’s recovery in oil production.
The IEA forecasts that non-OPEC+ nations will boost oil supplies by approximately 1.5 million bpd this year and next. Conversely, OPEC+ member states are expected to cut output by 820,000 bpd in 2024 but may increase production by about 560,000 bpd in 2025.
Libya has played a critical role in offsetting supply declines from Iraq and Kazakhstan. The country’s oil production rebounded significantly following the resolution of disputes over central bank management. Current output trends suggest Libya will hit 1.4 million bpd by the end of 2024, with plans to increase production to 2 million bpd within three years.
The overall oil market remains influenced by the balance between OPEC+ cuts and non-OPEC+ growth. Libya’s recovery has provided much-needed stability to global supplies, supporting increased production and export levels.
The IEA’s projections underscore the pivotal role Libya could play in stabilising global oil markets, particularly as it continues to ramp up production despite regional challenges.
