Libya has been ranked among the countries most vulnerable to election-related violence and digital electoral threats in the 2026–2027 period, according to the latest Electoral Fragility Index released by the Switzerland-based Kofi Annan Foundation.
The report places Libya 12th among 15 countries identified as facing the highest risks surrounding upcoming elections over the next 18 months.
The index was developed by the Kofi Annan Foundation in partnership with Upsight QRA, a forecasting firm linked to researchers at Sweden’s Uppsala University, and is intended to help identify countries where electoral processes may be particularly vulnerable to instability and conflict.
According to the report, Libya’s position reflects a combination of political, institutional, social, and governance-related challenges.
These include prolonged political divisions, weak institutions, governance difficulties, restrictions on civic participation, and broader structural factors that could affect the conduct and credibility of future elections.
The index serves as an early warning mechanism for policymakers, election authorities, civil society organizations, and international partners.
Rather than predicting violence, it highlights countries where existing conditions may increase the likelihood of electoral tensions and where preventive measures could help reduce potential risks.
In addition to concerns over election-related violence, Libya was also included among the ten countries facing the highest levels of digital electoral risk.
The report warns that the growing influence of social media and digital technologies has transformed election environments worldwide.
While digital platforms can improve access to information and encourage civic engagement, they can also facilitate the rapid spread of misinformation, deepen political polarization, and amplify harmful or divisive narratives.
