Libya has been ranked among the world’s highest-risk countries by security risk analysis platform GeoBit AI, receiving a composite threat score of 80 and placing 21st globally in its latest assessment.
According to the report, recent diplomatic initiatives, including political talks held in Misrata and Malta, as well as discussions on security cooperation between the United States and Libya, reflect continued efforts to reduce tensions. However, ongoing violence and criminal activity continue to make Libya’s security environment highly volatile and unpredictable.
The report highlighted discussions led by US presidential adviser Massad Boulos on a political settlement during meetings in Misrata last week, followed by talks in Malta focused on advancing political consensus outside Libya’s main conflict zones.
GeoBit AI also noted a series of government investigations and the downgrading of relations with several embassies on 10 and 11 July. In addition, it recorded multiple incidents involving official objections, arrests and detentions between 9 and 11 July, indicating rising internal tensions and increased security activity.
Tripoli was identified as Libya’s highest-risk location, with a threat score of 86, making it the country’s primary security hotspot. Murzuq ranked second with a score of 81.7 due to the continued presence of armed groups and organised crime networks in southern Libya.
Nine additional areas, including Al-Zawiya, Ghat and Al-Kufra, were classified as high-risk with threat scores of 56. The report said security threats are not confined to the capital but also extend to border regions, supply routes and areas containing strategic oil and other critical infrastructure.
GeoBit AI bases its assessments on open-source intelligence (OSINT), monitoring political and security developments, armed group activity, organised crime, civil unrest and cyber threats to produce country and regional risk indicators.
Looking ahead to the next seven days, the platform forecasts continued instability across Libya. While ongoing diplomatic engagement could temporarily reduce the risk of large-scale violence, it is unlikely to resolve the country’s deep-rooted political and security divisions.