A new report by the Council on Foreign Relations has highlighted Libya’s continuing struggle with political instability, security challenges, and institutional division more than a decade after the 2011 uprising, warning that unresolved disputes between rival political actors continue to hinder the country’s path toward lasting stability.
The report points to the failure of Libya’s planned presidential and parliamentary elections in 2021 as one of the clearest examples of the country’s ongoing political deadlock.
According to the analysis, competing factions were unable to reach an agreement on the legal framework governing the elections, including issues related to oversight, eligibility requirements, and the rules that would govern the electoral process. The lack of consensus ultimately prevented the vote from taking place and prolonged Libya’s transitional period.
While the report acknowledged improvements in humanitarian conditions in recent years, it stressed that major challenges remain. It noted that the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance fell significantly, dropping from approximately 1.3 million to around 300,000 by 2023. However, the report cautioned that progress in this area has been overshadowed by persistent economic, political, and security concerns.
Among the most significant challenges identified were Libya’s heavy dependence on oil revenues, the continued proliferation of weapons, climate-related pressures, and the growing complexity of irregular migration.
The report argued that the existence of rival governments and competing institutions has fueled recurring disputes over political authority, territory, and access to national resources.
Migration remains a major humanitarian and security concern, according to the report. Libya’s vast borders and fragile security environment have made the country a key transit route for migrants seeking to reach Europe through the Mediterranean. Many attempt dangerous sea crossings in overcrowded vessels, exposing themselves to significant risks.
The report also highlighted the ongoing threat posed by human trafficking and migrant exploitation. It warned that criminal networks and armed groups continue to benefit from trafficking activities, including forced labor and other forms of abuse.
The report concludes that Libya’s long-term stability will depend on overcoming political fragmentation, strengthening state institutions, and creating the conditions necessary for credible elections and sustainable development.
