A French institute has said it is becoming increasingly difficult to convince many Libyans that there is no international plan to permanently settle migrants in Libya, amid weak state institutions, public anger, and deep mistrust of foreign actors.
In a recent analysis, Le Diplomate Media said the migration debate in Libya has moved beyond a domestic issue and now reflects wider political tensions linked to sovereignty, border control, and Europe’s migration policies.
The institute pointed to protests that took place in Tripoli on 4 June, when hundreds of demonstrators gathered outside the offices of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya. Their message was direct: they rejected any permanent settlement of migrants on Libyan territory and called for their removal from the country.
Protesters raised slogans including “Libya for Libyans” and “No to settlement,” expressing growing fears that Libya could become a permanent resettlement zone for African and Middle Eastern migrants stranded on the route to Europe.
According to the French institute, the core of the public anger lies in a belief widely shared among many Libyans that an international project is underway to keep migrants in Libya permanently, rather than helping them return home or move on to other destinations.
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya quickly denied any such plan, describing the accusations as baseless. However, the institute said the denial has done little to calm public concern. In a country marked by fragile institutions and long-standing suspicion toward international actors, repeated reassurances have struggled to change public opinion.
The outgoing Government of National Unity also added to the debate when it stated on the same day that it opposed any policy aimed at settling migrants on Libyan soil. The institute said this position appeared to give further weight to a debate whose very existence the United Nations had denied.
The migration issue has become one of Libya’s most sensitive political and social challenges. According to the International Organization for Migration, around 900,000 migrants and refugees are present in Libya. However, local authorities and several political figures believe the real number could be much higher, with some estimates putting it at around 1.5 million people.
The war in Sudan, which began in 2023, has further increased pressure on Libya. Hundreds of thousands of Sudanese refugees have crossed Libya’s southern borders, placing additional strain on already weakened infrastructure, public services, and the national economy.
For many Libyans, the large migrant presence is now seen not only as an economic and security burden, but also as a demographic concern that could permanently alter the country’s social balance.
Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has remained divided between rival authorities. While the internationally recognised government is based in Tripoli, eastern Libya is controlled by separate authorities. This political division has prevented the rebuilding of a unified national authority capable of controlling the country’s borders and territory.
Le Diplomate Media said this power vacuum has allowed criminal networks involved in human smuggling to expand their activities. Libya’s coast has become one of the main departure points for migrants attempting to reach Europe, while the country’s southern routes continue to receive flows from the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and Sudan.
The recent protests in Tripoli, the institute said, reflect a deeper fear among Libyans who believe they have lost control over their borders. Many also see international management of the migration crisis as another form of interference in Libya’s sovereignty.
The institute concluded that the Libyan case exposes the limits of Europe’s migration strategy, which places much of the responsibility for controlling migration on fragile transit states. When those countries reject becoming permanent host nations, political and social tensions become almost unavoidable.
